What will happen to the hryvnia? Ukrainian hryvnia: experts' forecasts

In connection with the unstable economic situation in the country, the question of what will happen to the hryvnia in 2015 has not lost its relevance for a long time. It is interesting that, against the backdrop of important world events, such as the slate revolution, the fall in oil prices and the imposition of sanctions on Russia, no one can give a reliable forecast.

What did they talk about in 2014?

The end of 2014 was difficult for residents of many countries of the world, and Ukraine was no exception. The instability of the situation pushed experts away from predicting further developments. The official statement was dared only by Andrei Novak, who heads the post of head of the Committee of Economists, and several other public figures.

Novak focused on the fact that loans already in 2015 will not affect the change in the hryvnia exchange rate. According to him, the stabilization of the situation will be possible only in the event of the suppression of any kind of speculation in the foreign exchange market, as well as with the parallel implementation of the strict policy of the National Bank.

According to Vladimir Starintz, the leading economist of the country, today Ukraine is in a pre-default state. The situation may become critical if Russia requires a three-billion loan repayment. The situation can be mitigated only through austerity and in the event of a suspension of all social payments.

A more optimistic forecast was heard from the mouth of Capital Times managing director Eric Naiman. He said that the hryvnia exchange rate in 2015 will be modified in the range from UAH 15 to 25 per dollar, which, in fact, is happening today. If all the planned reforms can be implemented and investors are attracted, the situation will be leveled by the end of the year.

The National Bank of Ukraine declined from the forecast

On the question of what will happen to the hryvnia, did not dare for a long time to answer even the NBU, since he did not submit his analysis to the Cabinet of Ministers on time. Cabinet had to use the forecasts of investment bankers and economists, as officially announced by the Minister of Finance of the country Natalia Yaresko. With the stable state of the economy, the National Bank of the country annually provides a hryvnia forecast for calculating the project on the budget for the next year. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk unexpectedly for all officially declared that in the draft State Budget for 2015 there is actually a proposed course, which in fact is far from the real picture. According to him, the hryvnia to the dollar had to correspond to the ratio 1:17.

Why do experts talk about further cheaper hryvnia?

Many economists confidently say that in the near future the hryvnia will continue its decline. The trend is directly related to military operations in the east of the country. And then it's not even that to save compatriots who came to the defense of the country, withdraw funds from the budget. The reason for the phenomenon lies in the fact that the events of the past year have caused the closure of a number of enterprises in the east. According to preliminary estimates, it is in this part of the country that about 15-25% of companies that previously formed the export power of the state are concentrated. Closing them led to a reduction in the inflow of currency into the state.

It is worth mentioning that it is in the east that the largest agglomerations of the country are located, which previously acted as active consumers. Despite the stabilizing balance of payments, the volume of imports fell along with the purchasing power of the population. The trend is that until the situation in the east changes, the rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia, whose dynamics recently indicates a temporary correction, will continue its decline in the near future. Do not forget that this is only one of the likely scenarios.

The depreciation of the hryvnia in connection with the events on the financial market

The forecast of analysts considering the issue of what will happen to the hryvnia this year, which speaks about its further fall and even about the devaluation in connection with the cardinal changes in the Ukrainian financial market, is widespread. As a prerequisite for the fall of the rate, a massive withdrawal of investments from the state is considered, which by 90% had to do with people who had previously been in power. The outflow of funds caused pressure on the course.

Outflow of capital from banks and conversion into dollars

The Ukrainian hryvnia, whose price has fallen significantly over the past six months, will continue to decline due to lack of confidence in the financial sector. Over the past year, a temporary administration was introduced in more than 30 banks of the country. According to preliminary forecasts, a similar fate threatens at least 30 financial institutions. People, getting their hands on the deposit insurance fund within 200 thousand hryvnia, immediately change them to the currency, which only forms demand and makes the dollar grow in value. Based on the panic that reigns in society, and starting from the attempts of people to save their capital, analysts say that the Ukrainian hryvnia will only weaken.

Bold forecasts of analysts and economists

Trying to find the answer to the question about what will happen to the hryvnia in 2015, experts put the slats at the level of 40-50 hryvnia per dollar. Such a frightening many future results from the impossibility of using international tranches to raise the economy or to replenish the gold and foreign exchange reserves, since the assistance of foreign partners hardly covers Ukraine's external debts .

Negative scenarios of events are also forced to consider the fact that for already a year the National Bank has been systematically refinancing, the amount of which has already reached 1 billion hryvnia. This is an actual increase in the money supply in the country, an increase in supply in the market and, accordingly, a fall in the value of the monetary unit. We can talk about panic, about the almost complete sale of the gold reserve and the military conflict, which do not allow us to make optimistic forecasts for specialists.

What do specialists in the news say?

The media often repeats information that the worst scenario is the one in which the hryvnia to the dollar will correspond to the ratio of 1:25. If we take into account the fact that such a course has already taken place on the black exchange market, we can talk about working out the scenario. Many experts recommend not to hurry and emphasize the high probability of a recurrence of the trend. The situation is viewed in a negative light when the International Monetary Fund refuses to issue loans. At the moment, external sources of funds are the only opportunity for the country to cover the needs of the state for the next year. According to preliminary calculations, the country needs from 25 to 26 billion dollars of material support. Only 11-12 billion are able to allocate the IMF. Proceeding from this fact, economists do not say with certainty how much the Ukrainian hryvnia will cost in the near future, since its fate largely depends on the decisions of the international financial institution.

What moods form the forecasts?

The hryvnia forecast is directly related to the situation, which, most likely, will unfold in the country. Proceeding from the negative shades of the most probable scenarios of the development of events, we can speak about the forthcoming acceleration of inflation growth by about 5%. The growth of unemployment can reach a rate of 10%. The labor market will begin difficult times. There is a high probability of raising the retirement age. At the same time, the minimum income will remain at the same level. If the IMF gives a loan, the government will be forced to raise tariffs for housing and communal services. In particular, the payment for electricity, hot and cold water will cost four times as much. The rise in prices for products will become a natural phenomenon. Despite the fact that the forecasts remain forecasts and the situation in the country can drastically change after the intervention of wealthy partners at any moment, people do not stop panicking and worrying.

How to implement the forecast with a rate of 12 hryvnia per dollar?

In one of his speeches Ustenko officially announced that the hryvnia, whose schedule has recently been sent to the north and even touched the mark of 25 units for 1 US dollar, has every chance to roll back to the rate of 12 hryvnia per dollar. To achieve this goal will have to implement a whole range of upgrades that affect virtually all areas of life. The forecast will turn out to be realistic if we cut state allowances to the official salary of civil servants and cut subsidies, weaken the influence on domestic business, which will lead to the return of capital to the country. The forecasted situation will become more real if the costs are minimized and the austerity regime is established.

Temporary lull or real strengthening of the hryvnia?

If at the end of 2014 and early 2015 most of the forecasts that affected the ratio of the hryvnia to other currencies of the world had a negative connotation, today the mood in the society has changed significantly. Quite a large percentage of forecasters stopped predicting the growth of the dollar, expecting the narrowing of the exchange rate corridor to the range from 21.5 to 23.5 hryvnia per dollar. This trend, in which the Ukrainian hryvnia will continue to appreciate, is supported by the fact that by the end of the first quarter many enterprises were forced to pay taxes, which caused a reduction in the money supply in the market. Moreover, the NBU itself artificially reduces the volume of funds in the markets, encouraging banks to sell currency. It is too early to talk about stability, but positive assessments of the situation are very encouraging.

What can happen by the end of the year?

By the end of 2015, the situation with the hryvnia in the foreign exchange market can acquire three development formats. With a balanced outflow of capital and provided that the IMF does not stop its investment, by the end of the year the exchange rate of the national currency will be at the level of 27 to 29 hryvnia per dollar. If the outflow of capital from the country will keep the level of the end of 2014, we can safely prepare for a figure of 32-35 hryvnia for one American dollar. With an increase in the outflow of capital from the country several times, the situation can form quite frightening, one of the harshest forecasts at the level of 50 hryvnia per dollar can become quite real. A decrease in the rate of 1-1.5 times is associated with the desire of the population to transfer their savings to dollars and hide them under the pillow. The ratio of "hryvnia to ruble" is not so relevant today, because Russia, like Ukraine, is going through difficult times.

Summing up, or Does it make sense for the future?

Based on all the above, it can be noted that the analysis of the situation in the country has not provided analysts and economists with the opportunity to bow to a single forecast. The opinions of both politicians and specialists radically differ. The answer to the question as to how the hryvnia will be correlated to the ruble, to the dollar, to the euro, no one is more likely to give. This is due to the instability of the economic environment and the inability to predict the actions and decisions of the IMF, which directly impose an imprint on the exchange rate of the national currency.

Very interesting is the fact that at a time when analysts were talking about the fall and devaluation of the hryvnia by spring, it began to grow stronger. Today there is talk of strengthening the national currency, but nobody can insist on it. Hryvnia, whose schedule since the beginning of the year was sent to the north and only recently rolled back and froze, can be activated and go to one of the parties at any time. This can contribute to both external causes, important world events, and economic phenomena within the country. A complicated and ambiguous situation in the world economy makes its own adjustments to the hryvnia exchange rate.