When will the Ukrainian antiterrorist operation end?

The collapse of the USSR, initially held fairly peacefully, led to the emergence of numerous "hot spots" on the territory of a huge country. Interethnic conflicts quickly suppressed by the Soviet authorities using all the means of the state apparatus, suddenly there was nobody to "extinguish," moreover, their main source - movements and nationalist parties - in many newly formed countries became an element of the political apparatus and a stronghold of statehood. After the tragic events in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, Transnistria, Tajikistan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and many other post-Soviet regions, it was Ukraine's turn. Here began the so-called "antiterrorist operation", in scale unprecedented, which, perhaps, is to eclipse many local wars of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.

Prehistory

Ukraine has historically been divided into political and historical sympathies dominating in different regions. However, in addition to the "Bandera" and "Vatnic" ideologies, there are economic factors that influence the course of the state's further development. President Yanukovich, aware of this circumstance, hesitated for a long time, choosing the vector of the movement of the country entrusted to him. His task was not simple: it was necessary to determine what is more advantageous in the macroeconomic sense - the aspiration to the West, which promises very long prospects of familiarizing with "European values" mysterious for many citizens of Ukraine, or quite real commercial and industrial cooperation with the Russian Federation. It was also difficult to choose the extremely harsh conditions set by the EU countries: "It is impossible to sit on two chairs, and whoever is not with us is against us!" Eventually Viktor Fedorovich fell into a confusion, he did not dare to use force against a well-organized Maidan, and Overthrown.

Start

To argue that Donetsk and Lugansk had any tender sympathy for their detached and escaped president, only an extremely naive observer can. However, the very fact that representatives of only one political force came to power, not considering it necessary to listen to other opinions, caused a certain murmur. After the separation of the Crimea and its entry into the Russian Federation, a precedent arose, predicting the rapid and complete collapse of the country. On April 7 an anti-terrorist operation began in the east of Ukraine. The name of this military action meant the creation of a certain image of the enemy. And the military, its own population, and the international community was inspired by the idea that it is necessary to fight with a few groups of mercenaries and bandits, most of whom came from behind the Russian border. In this case, the victory was expected to be guaranteed, fast and almost bloodless. Very soon every sober person with a tendency to analyze events began to understand the error (at best) or the criminality (at worst) of such an approach to settling the conflict recognized by the Red Cross Committee as "non-international".

The question of legitimacy

The antiterrorist operation was declared acting President of Ukraine Turchinov. He and his associates came to power in approximately the same legal way as the Bolshevik Party in 1917. There was a revolution in the country, called a revolution, but not having its main feature - the change of socio-economic formation. The document signed by the VRII of the president contained the words "consolidation", "termination of confrontation" in its title and directly pointed to the place where the main threat to the new government arose: Donetsk and Lugansk regions. A significant part of the population was waiting for elections, in which people would be able to elect a legitimate president who at least to some extent expressed their views.

ATO after elections

The choice was not rich. To be guided by those who came to the sites on May 25, had to look at the external appearance of the candidates and the reputation that they managed to find in their previous career. The citizens who took part in the plebiscite, in their majority, considered the image of Peter Poroshenko as the most favorable, placing hope on his common sense and business-oriented approach to resolving the armed confrontation. Iridescent expectations were not justified, the anti-terrorist operation continued with even greater bitterness.

Doubtful successes

The deplorable state of the armed forces of Ukraine is inextricably linked with the economic state of this country. Despite the ongoing efforts to maintain morale and the natural superiority of the firepower and the amount of technology of the regular army over the militia, successes are sporadic, and losses exceed all conceivable norms. The number of downed aircraft for a long time is calculated by a two-digit figure, and the burnt armored vehicles have not been accounted for a long time. The losses of personnel to the population of Ukraine have to be judged by indirect signs, they are hidden and understated. The peaceful population is killing, about a thousand innocent victims (including children) are recognized, and how many of them really are difficult to establish. Houses and social facilities are being destroyed by bombing and shelling. There is a general tendency to the fact that the antiterrorist operation in the Donetsk region increasingly acquires a punitive character. However, in Lugansk, too.

Prospects

The Chechen war was a terrible shock for Russia. Approximately one percent of the population of the world's largest country was dissatisfied with the existing economic and political situation, a large part of it was determined to withdraw from the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian antiterrorist operation is conducted in conditions much more critical. A disagreement with the internal and external policies of the current leadership is to a greater or lesser extent expressed by a large part of the people, while in the combat zone lives from 4 to 5 percent of the total population, while Ukraine's resource base is incommensurably poorer. Soldiers fighting for the unity of the country, lack everything, from the notorious body armor to food. A new mobilization has been announced. How long will the anti-terrorist operation last? Russia accepts refugees, there are already hundreds of thousands of them ...