Population of Ukraine: possible decrease to 28 million

Every year the population of Ukraine continues to shrink inexorably. To such a disappointing conclusion you come by reading the next Gosstat data. In the second half of 2012, Ukraine's population was approximately at the same level, which was not observed in the last 19 years.

September 2012 even pleased with a slight increase, and the following month, in October, a similar situation was repeated again. However, Gosstat experts specified that in plus Ukraine managed to get out more at the expense of foreign students who came to study at Russian universities and people who came to the country in search of work.

At the Institute of Demography and Social Studies, experts believe that thanks to the baby boom Ukraine experienced in the 1980s, the population received a certain positive trend, which seems to be coming to an end.

Svetlana Aksenova, who works as a senior researcher in the department of quality problems of demographic processes, explained that at the moment children are given birth by those who were born during the baby boomers. The very wave of fertility due to the tendency of women to have offspring after normal age has somewhat stretched out. In addition, Ukrainians began to think about the second child more often. However, sooner or later this burst of fertility will end, the turn of those born in the 90s will come. And at that time, the birth rate was low ... Therefore, even if the generation of the 90s starts actively starting children, it still can not change the general trend, the population of Ukraine will continue to decline.

According to demographers, the nation of Ukrainians continues to die out. According to the long-term forecast until 2061, already in 2017 the number of citizens will be slightly below 45 million, and in about 50 years 37.5 million people will remain in the country. And this is not the most pessimistic assessment. In the worst case scenario, the population of Ukraine will generally be reduced to 28 million. However, migration processes will undoubtedly make their adjustments in this scenario. Migrants from underdeveloped countries will continue to come to Ukraine, so that the state will not be emptied.

Naturally, demographers can not foresee all the factors that could affect their forecast. No one can reliably predict wars, natural disasters and other events that could affect the development of the demographic situation in a particular country. However, if all current factors and trends continue, the forecast value will be very close to real figures.

At the same time, the dynamics of the birth rate will differ depending on the region in question. Thus, in the western regions, a positive growth is projected. This is due to the fact that Ukrainians there are more religious and less likely to make a decision about abortion. Also in the western regions, the rural population lives mostly, which is aimed at creating large families. In the east, there are urbanized people who rarely create a family with more than two children.

Last year, the Kharkiv (2,2 thousand) and Odessa (7 thousand) regions also showed a positive growth. This is due to the effect of the same baby boomers of the 80s. As of March 1, 2013, the population of Ukraine decreased to 45 million 529 thousand, which is 9,7 thousand less than in February of the same year.