When will Russia emerge from the crisis? Expert opinion

Crisis processes have been taking place in Russia's economy for several years. It is natural that many citizens of the country are worried about the question whether Russia will come out of the crisis and when this happens. After all, the welfare of people depends on the answer to it. Let's figure it out when Russia emerges from the crisis. The opinion of experts will help us in this.

Chronology

Before proceeding to the discussion of the issue, when Russia emerges from the crisis, let's find out exactly how it originated and developed in the country. This will help us to identify ways out of it.

After the global financial crisis of 2008 , Russia's economy began to recover gradually in early 2010. But already in 2013, there were some negative trends, the main of which was some outflow of capital from the country. However, although the scale of this phenomenon was of a crisis nature, they could not significantly slow down the Russian economy. Thus, the forecast for 2014 remained generally positive.

A much more depressing influence on the country's finances was provided by the economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries in 2014, and especially the collapse in oil prices that happened at that time. Economic experts assess the scale of the impact of these phenomena on the aggravation of the crisis in different ways, but most of them agree that it is quite significant.

The economic sanctions of the countries of the West have served as an obstacle to the implementation of a number of joint programs, limited the import of equipment necessary for the development of Russian industry, and the ability to lend to domestic enterprises and banks abroad, and significantly increased the outflow of capital. In response, the Russian government introduced anti-sanctions, which also had a number of negative consequences for the Russian economy. In particular, the need to look for new suppliers of agricultural products. However, most experts agree that in the long term, the response of the Russian government in the presence of an effective program can contribute to the development of agriculture in the country.

Where the greater impact on the economy of Russia had a sharp decline in the price of black gold. If by mid-2014 the price of oil was consistently in excess of $ 100 per barrel, by the end of the year it had fallen to almost $ 55 per barrel. In 2015, the fall was continued, and in early 2016 prices reached a minimum, falling below $ 30 per barrel.

Decrease in the cost of oil not only negatively affected the filling of the budget, but also contributed to a fall in the ruble exchange rate against world currencies. Regarding the dollar for the period from early 2014 to early 2016, the ruble depreciated more than 2.5 times. However, then, due to a certain increase in oil prices, the Russian currency was able to regain some ground.

The fall in the ruble's rate provoked an increase in the level of inflation, a significant increase in the cost of imported goods, as well as a decrease in real incomes of the population. In addition, the crisis in the economy contributes to a reduction in GDP and the curtailment of a number of projects.

It is not surprising that, in view of this, the population is currently very concerned about the question: "When will Russia start to get out of the crisis?"

Government Forecasts

First of all, let's find out when Russia emerges from the crisis, according to government representatives.

In mid-2015, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov gave his forecast on this matter. He said that Russia will start to overcome the crisis at the turn of 2015-2016. As you can see, this period of time has passed, and the economic situation of the country remains relatively heavy. At the same time, it should be taken into account that, in view of a certain increase in oil prices in the first quarter of 2016, certain positive trends have nevertheless emerged.

A more cautious forecast, when Russia emerges from the crisis, was given by the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev. In his opinion, the economy will grow only in 2017, as the recession will end by the end of 2016. However, in comparison with the position of some analysts, Ulyukayev's forecast is quite optimistic.

The head of the Central Bank of Russia and well-known domestic financier Elvira Nabiullina, basing on the conclusions of the analysts of the institution she headed, said that the crisis will accompany the Russian economy until the end of 2016. On the growth of indicators can be expected only from 2018, and to the previous level they will come out in 2019. This state of affairs Nabiullin connects with the established low cost of oil. But changes in prices for black gold can significantly correct the forecast of the Central Bank on the further development of the country's economy.

Stepan Demura: only worse is worse

Different from the opinion of the Russian government, the position on the question "will Russia be able to get out of the crisis" has a well-known analyst Stepan Demura. At one time, he predicted the global financial crisis of 2008, when most other experts did not even suspect about its possibility.

Stepan Demura believes that in 2016 the crisis will only worsen. He predicts that by the middle of the year the price of the dollar could well exceed the mark of 125 rubles and higher. The main reason for the crisis phenomena in the modern Russian economy, Stepan Demura, considers a significant dependence of the country's budget formation on the level of energy sales. In his opinion, Russia will not be able to get out of the crisis until it overcomes this dependence, and in the short term it is practically impossible.

But it is worth considering that Stepan Demura has long been known for his extremely pessimistic forecasts about the state of the Russian economy. Fortunately, most of them do not come true.

Slava Rabinovich: the arrival of the "black swan"

I agree with Stepan Demura on the issue when Russia is out of the crisis, Slava Rabinovich, who is a well-known financier and economic expert. He also holds the view that ahead of Russia will only aggravate the situation. Rabinovich believes that the big question is whether Russia will come out of the crisis by that country, politically, which it is now.

Slava Rabinovich claims that the arrival of the "black swan" is awaiting Russia, after which the crisis will take a truly scale character. This term means a negative event of great significance, capable of triggering a chain reaction based on the domino principle, which destroys the whole structure of management.

For example, under the bankruptcy of one of the systemically important banks in Russia, the process of bankruptcy of a number of enterprises important for the country's economy may be launched, which will lead to a significant increase in crisis phenomena.

Slava Rabinovich does not see a way out of the crisis for Russia at this stage. But we must bear in mind that he is in actual opposition to the current government, so that in his reasoning, most likely, there is a significant share of subjectivism.

Kudrin: a set of measures to overcome the crisis

His opinion about the issue, when Russia emerges from the crisis, has the former Minister of Finance of Russia, and now the authoritative expert Alexei Kudrin. In his most recent statements, he claims that the peak of the crisis was in 2015. However, he also says that you should not relax, because the crisis phenomena will be felt for a long time.

Kudrin does not mention the specific date for the final exit from the crisis. But he says that the way out of it will be considerably hampered or even impossible at all without solving specific problems. Kudrin has his own opinion on how to get out of Russia's economic crisis . First of all, Alexei Leonidovich considers improvement of the public administration system, which at the moment is inefficient, to be a step towards stabilizing the economy.

He also refers to the creation of a trusting relationship between the authorities, the population and business. Another step towards stabilizing public finances is raising the retirement age. By the way, in this plan with Kudrin agree and the current Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov.

It should be noted that Alexei Kudrin's statements about the future of the Russian economy were more pessimistic than the current ones.

The opinion of other domestic analysts

The optimistic forecast of the Russian government about overcoming the crisis in the coming years does not share Igor Nikolayev, who is the director of the Institute for Strategic Development. However, his scenario for the development of the situation is still not as pessimistic as that of Stepan Demura and Slavik Rabinovich. Igor Nikolaev believes that the way out of the crisis can come only when a combination of certain factors. He refers to them a significant increase in oil prices, the lifting of Western sanctions against Russia and immediate reforms in the structure of economic management. In the event that at least one of these factors does not work, it will be too early to talk about overcoming the crisis. A specific time, when all three conditions will be met, can not be called, since it depends not only on internal, but also on external processes.

Analysts of the HSE have developed two scenarios for possible future developments. According to one of them, oil prices will be in the region of $ 35 per barrel. The second scenario involves an increase in the value of black gold to $ 45. But in the first and second cases until 2020, it will be impossible to talk about the prerequisites for the country's economic growth. Simply at a price of $ 35 per barrel, Russia's financial losses will be significantly higher than at $ 45.

Assessments of foreign experts

Of course, the opinions of Russian experts and statesmen on the issue of how Russia intends to get out of the crisis are quite interesting, but for a more objective assessment of the situation one must look at the problem from the outside. Let's find out the position of the world's leading financial organizations and experts on the financial situation of the Russian Federation.

The IMF predicts that the Russian economy will continue to decline in 2016-2017. Though more recently forecasts of this international financial organization were much more optimistic. They argued that the crisis will be overcome by the end of 2016. And in 2017, the Russian economy was to demonstrate an increase of 1%.

Researchers of the Chinese news agency Xinhua, on the contrary, believe that Russia will be able to overcome the crisis without any problems. And do not ask anyone: "Help Russia get out of the crisis!" She is quite able to do it herself. The main prerequisites for this analysts of the Celestial Empire are the huge potential of the country, as well as the solidarity of the people. However, experts do not call specific dates.

Experts from the analytical portal from Germany also believe that Russia is quite capable of coping with economic difficulties. This will happen when oil prices go up again, which, according to the Germans, is an inevitable phenomenon that should be expected as soon as the OPEC countries come to an agreement. Russia will not only be economically stabilized, but also strengthen its positions.

Predictions of astrologers

Of course, in the question of when Russia will come out of the crisis, the predictions of astrologers for most of our compatriots are not decisive, but they should also be briefly discussed when discussing this topic.

The wife of the famous astrologer Pavel Globa Tamara, also a specialist in predictions, says that in 2016 the crisis will continue. And they will cover not only Russia, but the whole world. But, according to Tamara Globa, just the global crisis that destroys the old system of the world order is an excellent chance for Russia to advance to the forefront, which, according to the astrologer, will happen in the near future.

Another famous predictor is Fatima Khoduyeva, who is a finalist of the Battle of Psychics. In her opinion, the most difficult period for the Russian economy - 2015 - is passed. Then the situation will begin to improve and stabilize. A significant improvement will take place in the spring of 2016.

The most famous Bulgarian prophetess Vanga in her predictions said that the year 2016 will be quite difficult for Russia. Moreover, the whole world will be affected by the crisis. But by the end of the year, the situation in the country and the world has stabilized somewhat.

As we see, to the question, when Russia comes out of the crisis, psychics have rather optimistic answers. Let's hope that their predictions will come true.

Actions to overcome the crisis

Most experts are inclined to believe that, to a large extent, the present crisis is provoked by a sharp drop in the cost of oil on world markets. The Russian government can only indirectly influence this factor, and it is unlikely that there is a tool in its hands capable of actually inflating prices for black gold.

At the same time, experts believe that overcoming the crisis is quite possible if the government takes a number of steps to reform the management of the economy, will make Russia more attractive for attracting investments, and also minimizes the oil dependence of the country's budget.

Fears and Hopes

Many experts predict a protracted economic crisis in Russia with a vague prospect of getting out of it. At the same time, the authorities, namely Anton Siluanov, Alexei Ulyukayev and Elvira Nabiullina, predict the stabilization of the financial situation in 2017-2018. Even some foreign analysts, in particular, Chinese and German, agree with them. So the prerequisites for optimism in ordinary Russians still exist. Moreover, some specialists see in the current situation a number of opportunities for significant strengthening of the country's economy, and its emergence into the leading positions in the world. After all, the crisis time, except for clearly negative moments, also provides unique opportunities, which are extremely rare.

Hope and predictions of psychics inspire, but they should be treated with great care, since astrologers are building their conclusions after all, not on the scientific explanation of phenomena.

In general, Russian citizens have to hope for a relatively quick way out of the crisis of the country. But you need to be prepared for long-term economic and financial problems. In this case, even if the crisis drags on, we will be able to meet it fully armed. As they say, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.