Examples of hypotheses. Examples of scientific hypotheses

The concept of the hypothesis (Greek ὑπόθεσις - "basis, assumption") is a scientific assumption, the truth of which has not yet been confirmed. The hypothesis can act as a method of developing scientific knowledge (advancement and experimental verification of assumptions), and also as an element of the structure of scientific theory. Creation of a hypothetical system in the process of implementing certain mental operations allows a person to make available for discussion and visible transformation the alleged device of certain objects. The process of forecasting with respect to these objects acquires a more concrete and justified character.

History of the development of the method of hypotheses

The emergence of a hypothetical method occurs at an early stage in the development of ancient mathematical knowledge. In ancient Greece mathematicians used the method of deductive thought experiment for mathematical proofs. This method consisted in proposing a hypothesis with subsequent derivation of the consequences from it by means of analytic deduction. The purpose of the method was to verify the initial scientific conjectures and assumptions. His own analytic-synthetic method is developed by Plato. At the first stage the hypothesis put forward is subjected to preliminary analysis, on the second stage it is necessary to conduct a logical chain of conclusions in the reverse order. If this is possible, the original assumption is considered confirmed.

While in the ancient science of science the hypothetical method is applied more in a latent form, in the framework of other methods, at the end of the 17th century. The hypothesis begins to be used as an independent method of scientific research. The method of hypotheses received the greatest development and strengthening of its status within the framework of scientific knowledge in the works of F. Engels.

Hypothetical thinking in childhood

The procedure for formulating hypotheses is one of the most important stages in the development of thinking in childhood. About this, for example, writes the Swiss psychologist J. Piaget in his work "Speech and thinking of the child" (1923).

Examples of hypotheses for children can be found already at the initial stages of schooling at a younger school age. So, children can be asked to answer the question of where the birds know the way to the south. In turn, children begin to make assumptions. Examples of hypotheses: "they follow those birds in the flock that have already flown south earlier"; "They are guided by plants and trees"; "Feel warm air", etc. Initially, the thinking of a 6-8-year-old child is self-centered, in its conclusions the child is guided primarily by a simple intuitive justification. In turn, the development of hypothetical thinking makes it possible to remove this contradiction by facilitating the search for evidence by the child in substantiating one or another of his answers. In the future, when moving to secondary school, the process of generating hypotheses becomes much more complicated and acquires a new specificity - a more abstract character, reliance on formulas, etc.

Actively assignments for the development of hypothetical thinking are used in the framework of developing children's education, built according to the system of D.B. Elkonin - V.V. Davydov.

Nevertheless, regardless of the wording, the hypothesis is an assumption about the connections of two or more variables in a certain context and is an obligatory component of the scientific theory.

Hypothesis in the system of scientific knowledge

The scientific theory can not be formulated with the help of a direct inductive generalization of scientific experience. As an intermediate link is a hypothesis that explains the totality of certain facts or phenomena. This is the most difficult stage in the system of scientific knowledge. Intuition and logic play a leading role here. Reasoning by themselves is not yet evidence in science - it's only conclusions. Their truth can be judged only in the case of the truth of the premises on which they are based. The task of the researcher in this case is to choose from a variety of empirical facts and empirical generalizations of the most important, as well as in an attempt to scientifically substantiate these facts.

In addition to matching the hypothesis with empirical data, it is also necessary that it responds to such principles of scientific knowledge as reasonableness, economy and simplicity of thinking. The emergence of hypotheses is due to the uncertainty of the situation, the explanation of which is an urgent issue for scientific knowledge. There may also be conflicting judgments on an empirical level. In order to resolve this contradiction, it is necessary to put forward certain hypotheses.

Specificity of constructing hypotheses

In connection with the fact that the hypothesis is based on a certain assumption (prediction), one should bear in mind that this is not yet a reliable, but probable knowledge, the truth of which still needs to be proved. In doing so, it must cover all the facts relevant to this scientific field. As R. Carnap notes, if the researcher assumes that the elephant is an excellent swimmer, then it is not at all about one particular elephant that he could observe in one of the zoos. In this case, the English article the (in the Aristotelian sense - the multiple meaning) takes place, that is, it is a question of the whole class of elephants.

The hypothesis systematizes already existing facts, and also predicts the emergence of new ones. So, if we consider examples of hypotheses in science, we can distinguish the quantum hypothesis of M. Planck, put forward by him at the beginning of the twentieth century. This hypothesis, in turn, led to the discovery of such areas as quantum mechanics, quantum electrodynamics, and others.

The main properties of the hypothesis

In the end, any hypothesis should receive either confirmation or refutation. Thus, we are dealing with such properties of the scientific theory as verifiability and falsifiability.

The verification process is aimed at establishing the truth of one or another knowledge through their empirical verification, after which the hypothesis of the investigation is confirmed. An example is the atomistic theory of Democritus. Also, one should distinguish between assumptions that can be tested empirically, and those that are, in principle, unverifiable. So, the statement: "Olya loves Vasya" - initially can not be verified, while the statement: "Olya says she loves Vasya" - can be verifiable.

Verifiability can also be of an indirect nature, when the conclusion is made on the basis of logical conclusions from directly verified facts.

The process of falsification, in turn, is aimed at establishing the falsity of the hypothesis in the process of empirical verification. It is important to note that the results of hypothesis testing alone can not refute it - an alternative hypothesis is needed for the further development of the studied area of knowledge. If there is no such hypothesis, rejection of the first hypothesis is impossible.

Hypothesis in the experiment

The assumptions advanced by the researcher for experimental confirmation are called experimental hypotheses. They are not necessarily based on theory. VN Druzhinin identifies three types of hypotheses from the point of view of their origin:

1. Theoretically grounded - based on theory (models of reality) and are predictions, consequences of these theories.

2. Scientific experimental - also confirm (or refute) some or other models of reality, but based not on the already formulated theories, but on the intuitive assumptions of the researcher ("Why not ...?").

3. Empirical hypotheses formulated with respect to a particular given case. Examples of hypotheses: "Click the cow on the nose, it will wave its tail" (Kozma Prutkov). After confirming the hypothesis during the experiment, it acquires the status of a fact.

Common to all experimental hypotheses is the property of operationalizability, that is, the formulation of hypotheses in terms of specific experimental procedures. In this context, we can also distinguish three types of hypotheses:

• Hypothesis about the presence of a particular phenomenon (type A);
• Hypotheses about the existence of a connection between phenomena (type B);
• Hypothesis about the existence of a causal connection between the phenomena (type B).

Examples of hypotheses of type A:

• Is there a phenomenon of "shift to risk" (the term social psychology) in the process of group decision making?
• Is there life on Mars?
• Is it possible to transmit thoughts at a distance?

Also here it is possible to carry a periodic system of chemical elements Mendeleev, on the basis of which the scientist predicted the existence of elements not yet open at the time. Thus, all hypotheses about facts and phenomena belong to this type.

Examples of hypotheses of type B:

• All external manifestations of brain activity can be reduced to muscle movements (IM Sechenov).
• Extraverts have a greater propensity for risk than introverts.

Accordingly, this type of hypothesis characterizes certain relationships between phenomena.

Examples of hypotheses of type B:

• The centrifugal force balances the gravity and reduces it to zero (KE Tsiolkovsky).
• The development of the child's small motor skills promotes the development of his intellectual abilities.

This type of hypotheses is based on independent and dependent variables, the relationships between them, as well as the levels of additional variables.

Hypothesis, disposition, sanction

Examples of these concepts are considered within the framework of legal knowledge as elements of a legal norm. It should also be noted that the very issue of the structure of law in jurisprudence is an object of discussion for both domestic and foreign scientific thought.

The hypothesis in jurisprudence is a part of the norm that determines the conditions for the operation of this norm, the facts under which it begins to function.

A hypothesis within the framework of law can express such aspects as the place / time of the occurrence of a particular event; The belonging of the subject to a particular state; The timing of the entry into force of the legal norm; Health status of the subject, affecting the possibility of implementing a particular right, etc. An example of the hypothesis of the rule of law: "A child of unknown parents, found on the territory of the Russian Federation, becomes a citizen of the Russian Federation." Accordingly, the place of the incident and the belonging of the subject to the specific state are indicated. In this case, there is a simple hypothesis. In the right examples of such hypotheses are quite common. A simple hypothesis is based on one circumstance (fact) under which it takes effect. Also, the hypothesis can be complicated if it is a matter of two or more circumstances. In addition, there is an alternative kind of hypothesis, presupposing actions of a different nature, equated to each other by law for one reason or another.

The disposition is aimed at consolidating the rights and duties of participants in legal relations, indicating their possible and proper behavior. Like the hypothesis, disposition can have a simple, complex or alternative form. In a simple disposition, the speech is about one legal consequence; In complex - about two or more, coming simultaneously or in the aggregate; In the alternative disposition - about the different in nature of the consequences ("either").

Sanction, in turn, is part of the norm, indicating the enforcement of measures to ensure rights and obligations. In many cases, sanctions are aimed at specific types of legal liability. In terms of certainty, there are two types of sanctions: absolutely-definite and relatively-specific. In the first case, we are talking about legal consequences that do not provide for any alternatives (invalidation, transfer of ownership, fine, etc.). In the second case, several solutions can be considered (for example, in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation this may be a fine or imprisonment, the scope of the term of punishment - for example, from 5 to 10 years, etc.). Also, sanctions can be punitive and legal recovery.

Analysis of the structure of the legal norm

Accordingly, the structure "hypothesis - disposition - sanction" (examples of the legal norm) can be represented in the following form: HYPOTHESIS ("if ..") → DISPOSE ("then ..") → SANCTION ("otherwise .."). However, in reality, all three elements in the norm of law are quite rare at the same time. More often we are dealing with a two-member structure, which can be of two kinds:

1. Regulatory law: hypothesis-disposition. In turn, they can be subdivided into binding, prohibiting and empowering.

2. Protective norms of law: a hypothesis-sanction. There can also be three types: absolutely-definite, relatively-specific and alternative (see classification of sanctions).

However, the hypothesis does not need to be at the beginning of the legal norm. Correspondence to a certain structure distinguishes the rule of law from an individual prescription (calculated for a single action), as well as from general principles of law (not identifying hypotheses and sanctions regulating relations without particular certainty).

Let's consider examples of a hypothesis, disposition, sanctions in articles. Regulatory norms of law: "Employable children who have reached the age of 18 must take care of disabled parents" (Constitution of the Russian Federation, part 3, article 38). The first part of the norm, concerning able-bodied children who have reached the age of 18 years is a hypothesis. It, as well as it is necessary to hypothesis, specifies conditions of action of norm - on the order of its coming into force. Indication of the need for caring for disabled parents is a disposition that fixes a certain duty. Thus, the elements of the legal norm in this case are the hypothesis and disposition - an example of a binding norm.

"A contractor who improperly performed the work has no right to refer to the fact that the customer did not exercise control and supervision over their implementation, except ..." (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 4, article 748). These are examples of the hypothesis and disposition of the prohibiting norm.

Protective standards of law: "For harm caused to minors under the age of 14, his parents are responsible ..." (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 1, art. 1073). This structure: a hypothesis-sanction, an example of an absolutely-defined legal norm. This species is the only exact condition (harm caused by a minor) in combination with the only exact sanction (the responsibility of the parents). Hypotheses in protective legal norms indicate violations.

An example of an alternative legal rule: "Fraud committed by a group of persons by prior agreement ... is punishable by a fine of up to 300 thousand rubles, either in the amount of the wage or other income of the convicted person for a period of up to 2 years, or by compulsory labor for up to 480 hours. . "(Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Article 159, paragraph 2); "Fraud committed by a person using his official position ... is punishable by a fine in the amount of 100 thousand to 500 thousand rubles" (Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Article 159, paragraph 3). Accordingly, the facts of fraud in question are examples of scientific hypotheses, and those or other alternatives of responsibility for these crimes are examples of sanctions.

Hypothesis in the framework of psychological research

If we are talking about psychological scientific research based on methods of mathematical statistics, then the hypothesis in this case must meet first of all such requirements as clarity and laconism. As E.V. Sidorenko, thanks to these hypotheses, the researcher during the calculations, in fact, gets a clear picture of what he has established.

It is accepted to distinguish between zero and alternative statistical hypotheses. In the first case, we are talking about the absence of differences in the characteristics under study, according to the formula X ₁ -X ₂ = 0. In turn, X ₁ , X ₂ - the values of the characteristics by which the comparison is performed. Accordingly, if the aim of our research is to prove the statistical significance of the differences between the meanings of the characteristics, then we want to refute the null hypothesis.

In the case of the alternative hypothesis, the statistical significance of the differences is stated. Thus, an alternative hypothesis is the statement that we are trying to prove. It is also called the experimental hypothesis. It should be noted that in some cases the researcher, on the contrary, may seek to prove the null hypothesis, if it corresponds to the purposes of his experiment.

We can give the following examples of hypotheses in psychology:

Zero Hypothesis (H ₀ ): The tendency of the increase (decrease) of the trait in the transition from one sample to another is random.

Alternative hypothesis (H ₁ ): The tendency of the increase (decrease) in the trait on passing from one sample to another is not accidental.

Suppose that in a group of children with a high level of anxiety, a series of trainings was held to reduce this anxiety. Measurements of this indicator were made before and after the training, respectively. It is necessary to establish whether the difference between these measurements is a statistically significant indicator. The null hypothesis (H ₀ ) will have the following form: the tendency to reduce the level of anxiety in the group after the training is random. In turn, the alternative hypothesis (H ₁ ) will sound like: the tendency to reduce the level of anxiety in the group after the training is not accidental.

After applying a mathematical criterion (for example, the G-criterion of signs), the researcher can draw a conclusion about the statistical significance / insignificance of the obtained "shift" with respect to the test feature (level of anxiety). If the indicator is statistically significant, an alternative hypothesis is accepted, and zero, respectively, is discarded. In the opposite case, on the contrary, the null hypothesis is accepted.

Also in psychology, there may be a correlation (correlation) between two and several variables, which also reflects the hypothesis of the study. Example:

H ₀ : the correlation between the student's attention index and the indicator of the success of the performance of the control task does not differ from 0.

H ₁ : the correlation between the student's attention index and the indicator of the success of the control task performance is statistically significantly different from 0.

In addition, examples of scientific hypotheses in psychological research that require statistical confirmation can relate to the distribution of the trait (empirical and theoretical level), the degree of consistency of changes (when two characteristics or their hierarchies are compared), etc.

Hypothesis in sociology

For example, if we are talking about undergraduates in a university, it is necessary to analyze its causes. What hypotheses can a sociologist put forward in this case? A.I. Kravchenko gives the following examples of hypotheses in a sociological study:

• Low quality of teaching a number of subjects.
• Distraction of university students from the educational process for additional earnings.
• Low level of exactingness of the university administration to the progress and discipline of students.
• The costs of competitive admission to the university.

It is important that examples of scientific hypotheses meet the requirements of clarity and concreteness, referring only to the subject of research directly. The literacy of the formulation of hypotheses, as a rule, determines the literacy of the choice of research methods. This requirement is the same for constructing hypotheses in all forms of scientific sociological work - whether it is a hypothesis within the framework of a seminar session or the hypothesis of a thesis. An example of low academic achievement in a university, in the case of choosing a hypothesis about the negative impact of students' work-earnings, can be considered in the framework of a simple survey of respondents. If a hypothesis is chosen about the low quality of teaching, an expert poll should be used. In turn, when it comes to the costs of competitive selection, you can apply the method of correlation analysis - when comparing the performance indicators of students of a given institution with different conditions of admission.