The natural decline in the population is the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births

The demographic situation remains quite complicated in modern conditions . If we compare countries by population, Russia, of course, is far from being the last. However, this does not mean that there are no problems. Let us further consider what is the natural population loss.

The concept of

If in Russia at the current moment, even with the existing number of those who were born, died per 1,000 people. As much as in Western European countries, the demographic situation would have been much better. одна из наиболее актуальных проблем сегодня в стране. The natural decline in population is one of the most pressing problems in the country today. It arises from the excess of mortality over births.

As the statisticians point out, if the number of deaths today remained at the level of the 80s. The last century with the current birth rate, then the position of our country in terms of population would be much higher. At the same time, it should be emphasized that this is not about reproduction, which forms the future dynamics. It is determined by the indicators of total fertility and mortality. . Their difference, in turn, reflects the coefficient of natural increase / decrease in the population .

Statistics

I must say that the low level of reproduction for the state is no less dangerous than the natural decline in the population. подтверждается статистическими данными. This is confirmed by statistical data. In the previous 13 years in Russia, 20.4 million people died, and from 1992 to 2004 - 28.2 million. The contribution of the increase in the proportion of deaths was four times higher than the decrease in the birth rate. Despite the fact that different sources of Rosstat have different indicators, it is quite possible to analyze general trends of depopulation.

1992. Со следующего, 1993-го г., ее показатель ниже 750 тыс. чел. The first year in the newest history, in which the natural decline in population was recorded , is 1992. From the next, in 1993, its indicator is below 750 thousand people. Did not fall. In 1994, for the first time in the postwar period, the death rate exceeded 2.3 million people. Accordingly, the natural decline of the population also increased . был не одномоментный всплеск. It was not a momentary surge. There was a new negative trend. This is confirmed by statistical figures: from 1993 to 1996 it was more than 3,250 thousand people, and in the following years it increased to 3,350,000 people. In the 21st century (from 2001 to 2004) the figure exceeded 3,550 thousand people.

Compensating process

в той либо другой степени возмещалось притоком мигрантов. The decline in the population was, to one degree or another, compensated by the influx of migrants. In 1994, their number was 846 thousand people. Due to this, 95% of the natural loss was recovered. At the same time, the analysis of information for all other years indicates a systematic decrease in the compensatory role of the migration process. In general, during the 13 years of the depopulation situation, about 35.2% (3.6 million people) were reimbursed. In 1992-1996 the country received more than 2325 thousand people due to migration, and from 2001 to 2004 - only 282 thousand people. Currently, migration processes, in fact, do not compensate for the increasing natural loss.

Causes

Experts attribute the reduction in the number of migrants to the decline in the states in the post-Soviet space of the so-called migration potential. Throughout the 90's. People from near abroad constantly came to Russia. At the same time, Russians prevailed among them. To a lesser extent, the number of visitors was from Kazakhstan, Transcaucasia, Wed. Asia. In general, about 370 people returned to Russia for 1 thousand Russians who arrived in 1989-2003 to Russia.

Most of all from the country traveled to Belarus, the least - to Azerbaijan. Due to the influx, the number of Russians fell not by 7, but only by 4 million people. According to the 2002 census, about 1.5 million people were added additionally due to changes in the part of Belarusians and Ukrainians of their nationality.

Meanwhile, specialists, as the main reason for the reduction of the flow of people from near abroad, call not a reduction in the scale of the potential, but a change in migration attitudes among those who, during the first few years after the collapse of the Union, were unable to return to their historical homeland. This, in turn, was influenced by the policy pursued by the Russian government.

The leadership of the country, in particular, could not take advantage of the favorable conjuncture. In connection with discrimination in the adoption of laws on language, citizenship, electoral law, etc., in some states the Russian-speaking population was ready to return to the country. However, on their way citizens met obstacles created by the authorities. Accordingly, all their impulses to return back to Russia quickly went out.

Comparison with other countries

In the postwar years, France, despite no less difficulties in the economic sphere, was able to repatriate from the North. Africa about 1.5-2 million people, ie, almost all of their compatriots. Germany returned about 10-12 million people, Japan - 4.5 million. This allowed countries to increase the population by 5-6%. The postwar situation in these states indicates a colossal economic and political gain. Once in a similar situation, Russia almost until the late 90's. Has pursued a policy that is contrary to its national interests. This is indicated first of all by the adoption immediately after independence of the law "On Citizenship". This normative act has established a number of obstacles for persons who returned to Russia after 1992.

Crucial moment

It should be noted, however, that until 1999, even with a natural decline, migration flows held back the decline in the number of people in Russia. From 1992 to 1998 The figure was 279 thousand people / year (the total value - 1950 thousand people). In the next 6 years, the reduction was already impressive - 4,785 thousand people. Thus, during the depopulation period the number of citizens decreased by 4.9-6.8 million people.

conclusions

Unlike other developed countries, in Russia depopulation has a number of features. ? What explains the natural decline in population ? In Russia, the drop in the birth rate to the extent that descendants are able to replace only 3/5 of the parental generation is supplemented by increased mortality. The latter, in turn, reduces the expected life expectancy by 12-15 years, in comparison with other states. This led to the neighborhood in the ratings with countries such as Vietnam, Guatemala, Honduras, Egypt, etc. In Europe, there is no state in which the life expectancy of people would be less than in Russia.

Conclusion

I must say that natural loss is not something new for the world community. Still at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries. France was in a state of depopulation. In the second half of the 20th century, some European states faced this situation. In the early 70's. Against the backdrop of quite favorable conditions for development in the post-war period for the first time the number of deaths exceeded the number of those born. This situation is still present.

Natural loss has been observed since 1975 in Austria. Over the next two decades, there has been a meager increase in the number of people (1 person per thousand). A similar situation was in Belgium and Italy, and in the 90's. - in Sweden, Spain, Greece. In the second half of the 80's. A natural decline was noted in the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and some other Eastern European countries.

From 1999 to 2004 In Russia, the number of deaths is annually higher than those born 800-950 thousand people. At the same time, the total number is reduced annually by 750-900 thousand. The situation is complicated by the fact that migration has lost its compensatory role. This means that the rate of decline in the number of people in Russia is determined solely by natural decline. Thus, we can state that the state is in the deepest demographic crisis.