Natural decline in the population of Russia: causes

Natural population decline is a problem that is one of the most urgent in the world. A situation arises as a result of the prevalence of mortality over births.

The concepts of "natural population decline" and "population growth"

Fertility and mortality are processes that have a decisive influence on the demographic situation in a particular state or in the world as a whole. Both indicators are quantitative. Fertility reflects the number of newborns for a certain period in a certain territory, calculated, as a rule, in the form of a common coefficient - the number of people born alive per 1000 population. In addition, the birth rate can be determined by such indicators:

• The age-specific fertility rate (the number of newborns per 1000 women of the same age);
• The total fertility rate (the number of newborns in a certain territory for a certain period per woman).

Mortality is defined as the ratio of the number of deaths for a certain period and in a certain territory to the population. The smallest death to date is recorded in Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, the largest - in Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana and other countries with a low standard of living, health, and the HIV epidemic.

The birth and death rates directly influence other statistics in demography, for example, natural loss and population growth. The natural loss of population (or the negative coefficient of natural increase) is fixed if the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Otherwise, we can talk about natural growth, which is the basis of population growth.

List of countries by population decrease

The greatest natural decline in population is typical for many countries in Eastern Europe. In the list of depopulating states (in terms of the rate of natural population decrease from the worst demographic situation):

1. Bulgaria. Mortality in Bulgaria is almost one and a half times higher than the birth rate for several decades.
2. Estonia. Part of the natural decline in the population in Estonia is not only a change in the ratio of births and deaths, but also the outflow of migrants, including Russian speakers.
3. Latvia. The natural decline in Latvia is also significantly affected by migration processes.
4. Ukraine. Political instability, falling living standards, civil war and loss of territories - all this, together with a decline in the birth rate, the main causes of natural population decline in Ukraine.
5. Belarus. The population of Belarus has been steadily declining for several years in a row.
6. Georgia. The demographic situation began to deteriorate rapidly with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
7. Lithuania. Similar to many union republics, the situation in Lithuania began to deteriorate after gaining independence.
8. Hungary. For several years, Hungary is on the list of countries with low birth rates.
9. Japan. Childbearing in Japan has been falling since the seventies. It's right to say, if not about the disaster, then about the complex demographic situation so precisely.
10. Russia. The demographic problems of the Russian Federation will be discussed in more detail in the corresponding section below.
11. Slovenia. To date, twenty-one thousand births are nineteen thousand dead. The natural increase is positive, but the population growth rate leaves much to be desired.
12. Moldova. Following the proclamation of independence, the population of Moldova fell by about three hundred thousand.
13. Armenia. The decline in the population has been clearly evident since 1995.
14. Bosnia. In the state there is a stable aging of the population.
15. Croatia. The number of deaths exceeds the number of births, the natural decline in the population has been observed in Croatia for several years in a row.

The map below graphically represents the rate of natural population growth in the world.

Dynamics of the population of Russia by years

The census, conducted in 1897, registered 125 million people living in the Russian Empire. At the current borders of the Russian Federation at the time lived 67.5 million people. The natural decline in the population of Russia since then until 1994, when the decline in population growth began, was observed only once. So, in 1946, after the Great Patriotic War, the number of inhabitants decreased from almost 111 million (in 1941) to 97.5 million.

The graph below shows the natural increase and dynamics of fertility, mortality since 1950. It can be seen that the natural decline in the population (at that time, not yet a negative natural increase, but a visible deterioration in the demographic situation), together with a decline in the birth rate, were observed in the post-war years. Then the situation stabilized. The next significant deterioration is observed with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then, due to the unfavorable political situation and the deterioration of the quality of life of the population, the birth rate simultaneously decreased and the death rate increased.

Population of the Russian Federation

To date, the population of Russia is 146.8 million people. In the past few years (since 2010), the population of the Russian Federation has been slow, but increasing from year to year. At the same time, the demographic situation as a whole leaves much to be desired.

Current demographic situation: main trends

Current demographic trends in the Russian Federation are as follows:

• The lowest life expectancy among men in Europe (62.8 years);
• "Demographic waves": the extremely low number of people born in the forties, seventies and nineties;
• The extinction of the indigenous population is somewhat offset by migration growth;
• The number of children per woman decreased from two (for 1988, the figure was 2.2 children) to 1.24, while for stable population growth more than two are needed;
• The birth rate is increasing at the expense of regions with traditionally early motherhood;
• The number of Russians in the national composition is significantly reduced, the indigenous population is replaced by migrants;
• The decline in the quality of life, which simultaneously becomes both the cause and the consequence of the demographic crisis - many countries with a natural population decline face unfavorable economic and political conditions, as well as other problems.

The main causes of natural population loss

There are several groups of factors that influence the demographic crisis, but it is not always possible to identify the dominant factors.

1. Demoeconomic: a general decline in fertility rates and an increase in mortality, which is characteristic of most post-industrial states.
2. Socioeconomic: a decline in living standards, uncertainty about the future, the transition from socialism to a market economy, the fear of having children.
3. Socio-medical: general deterioration of public health, mass alcoholism, drug addiction, increased mortality rates.
4. Socioethical: psychological depression of the population, high level of violence, popularization of abortions, collapse of the family institute, dissemination of the ideas of "childfree", degradation of public morality.

Forecasts of the demographic situation in Russia

Forecast for the current demographic situation at the moment is not favorable. If you do not already raise the birth rate, then by 2025 to stabilize the situation you will need an indicator of the total fertility rate of 3.41 children per woman.

With the current trends, we can expect that the population of the Russian Federation will drop to 80 million by 2080. According to pessimistic forecasts, this will happen even earlier - in 2060. In the opinion of many scientists and politicians, with such a size, it will not be possible to keep the territory of the Russian Federation under control in today's borders.

Ways out of the demographic crisis

It is generally accepted that the only way out of the difficult demographic situation is to strengthen the institution of the family with children. However, in practice, more profound changes are needed. So, we should ensure a stable political and economic situation, implement preferential taxation and lending to young families, strengthen the position of the family among other social institutions, and much more.