Investment attractiveness of the enterprise and forecasting investment activity of construction industry enterprises

The enterprise of the construction industry is a complex production and economic system characterized by a set of properties that are inextricably linked with its internal features. These include: reliability, elasticity, mobility, adaptability, sustainability, competitiveness, innovative susceptibility, investment activity, which reflects the dynamics of investment activity, the scale, direction and effectiveness of its investment, investment attractiveness of the enterprise as a whole.

In modern conditions, determined by high competition in the industry and the saturation of the market for the traditional type of products (services), the advantage is given to those construction companies that have a sufficiently high market value, whose growth can not be achieved without attracting additional investment resources to replenish core and working capital, To increase the competitiveness of products, to develop the enterprise and increase investment attractiveness.

Increasing the investment attractiveness of the enterprise involves management of investment activity, which, obviously, is the most important parameter of the development of a construction enterprise.

In the system of investment activity management functions, special emphasis is placed on planning, which, on the basis of forecast data, allows to determine the strategic objectives of the investment activity of a business entity , ways and means to achieve them. The investment attractiveness of the enterprise in the strategic plan is aimed at increasing investment activity and maintaining its optimal level.

The limits of investment activity planning are established in the course of its forecasting, which results in quantitative forecast values of the index of investment activity (structural indicators) for the future, a critical level of investment activity of the construction enterprise, the achievement of which leads to qualitative changes in its market value. Given that the investment attractiveness of the enterprise requires a balanced forecast, the complexity of the forecasting process and the quality requirements of the results, it is possible to estimate the projected values of the investment activity indicators using several methods.

Taking into account a number of factors: the specificity of the forecasting object (the investment attractiveness of the enterprise, its activity and its structural indicators), the provision of statistical information about the investigated object, the medium period of pre-emptive period, it is advisable to use extrapolating methods in the process of forecasting the investment activity of a construction enterprise. A reasonable prerequisite for the application of these methods is a certain degree of inertia in the dynamics of investment activity of construction enterprises in the short and medium term.

Methods of extrapolation are based on retrospection, during which the model of the dynamics of the forecasting object is formed: the index of the investment activity of the construction enterprise, its structural indicators and the spread of trends in indicators in the retrospective period for the future.

The conducted researches have shown that the following methods are promising to determine the forecast values of the activity indices of a construction enterprise:

• Analytical alignment;

• simple exponential smoothing;

• Holt-Winters exponential smoothing;

• exponential smoothing of Brown.

All these methods are based on the presentation of what is the investment attractiveness of the enterprise and the dependence of the levels of the dynamic series of indicators of its investment activity on the time factors.