The unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 and the forecast for 2015. The dynamics of the unemployment rate in Russia

The concept of unemployment, according to the methodology of the ILO, which is used in a modified form by Rosstat, is the ratio of the number of economically active population of the country aged 15 to 72 years to people who at the time of the study sought work or were interested in finding a job.

Specificity of estimating the unemployment rate in Russia

The unemployment rate in Russia is determined by taking into account two parameters:

• Number of calls to the employment service.
• Analysis of the results of population surveys on problems that occur within 0.6% of the total population of the country.

Each quarter in Russia, a survey of about 65,000 people aged 15 to 72 years. For a year the number of the surveyed persons reaches about 260 thousand people.

Rosstat data

In accordance with selective surveys of the Rosstat population, in April 2015 the unemployment rate in Russia reached 5.8%. This makes about 4.4 million people. Employment services recorded less than 1 million unemployed. This information was guided by the president of the country during his direct speech with the report on the results of the year in April 2015. According to sociological surveys, in February 2015, about 27% of the population noted a reduction in the number of employees in enterprises during the end of 2014 - early 2015. According to the information provided by Rosstat, during the last decade the unemployment rate in Russia varied in the range between 5.3% in 2014 and 8.2% in 2009, which many remember as a crisis. In general, in the last year, according to the figures, the situation has only improved.

The unemployment rate in Russia for January-April 2015

According to the conducted researches in the period from January to April the highest level of unemployment was recorded in the Republic of Ingushetia. The indicator has reached the value of 29.9% already in April this year. In the rest of the North Caucasian republics and in Kalmykia, in the Trans-Baikal Territory and in Sevastopol, in the territory of the Republic of Tyva and in the Nenets Autonomous District, unemployment reached 10%. Indicators within 3% were recorded only in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the central part of the country, the indicator either is lower, or does not exceed the natural level of unemployment in Russia (5.8%). In some regions, unemployment reaches 6-8% of the total active population with an average of 7%. Official statistics do not give any reason for panic.

Search Query Statistics

The dynamics of the unemployment rate in Russia is successfully monitored by the number of search queries with the word "vacancy". So, in the period from March 2013 to April 2015, the number of requests increased by 94.2%. This became the maximum for the last two years. A very illogical situation is being formed. Despite the systematic improvement of official figures, people intensified their search for work. Doubt arouses the current situation. In March 2013, the official unemployment rate was only 5.7%, which corresponded to the number of requests on the Internet. Accordingly, the increase in unemployment in March 2015 caused the increase of job seekers on the Internet by 1.94 times. If you transfer the number of requests with the word "vacancy" to a percentage, it should have been set at 11%. In fact, the growth of the indicator was officially announced only 0.1%. The phenomenon is easily explained by the fact that there is not only an official, but also a hidden level of unemployment in Russia. The number of those who are officially registered at work increases, but at the same time they either work part-time or are not employed at all. Search for jobs on the Internet - this is one of the most in demand today. Even those people who are threatened with dismissal resort to it, which also postpones a certain imprint on the figures.

Monitoring in the field of employment

In February 2015, representatives of the FOM conducted a general monitoring of the situation in the country. In accordance with the information provided, it was possible to derive the following statistics:

• The loss of work among relatives was noted by 31% of the respondents.
• Not less than 27% of all monitoring participants stated about the reduction at their enterprises.
• 39% of those surveyed focused on the high probability of losing their work.
• At least 19% of study participants talked about hidden unemployment within their companies.

If we compare the situation with the crisis of 2008, when the unemployment rate was incredibly high, today everything is more or less stable, which is confirmed by official data. At the same time, many respondents note the deterioration of the situation.

How was the situation in 2014?

The unemployment rate in Russia in 2014, many experts recall as a critical moment. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, at that time the number of economically unemployed persons was equal to 151 thousand people. Against the background of the current economic situation, experts did not stop talking about further deterioration of the indicators. Authorized representatives of Rosstat managed to calculate: the unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 in September was only 4.9%, but the figures for October were much worse, at the level of 5.1%. The analysis of the situation showed that the most affected people were those who were involved in the private sector. The forecast was made that in the coming year a high level of unemployment in Russia, including black unemployment, will be fixed.

Unemployment during the crisis of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015

During the crisis of 2008-2009, the first information on the growth of unemployment was received in the media in October 2008. The main wave covered the country only after 7-8 months, during the period from January to April 2009. Significant differences in the indicators were seen in the regional context. Information on creating new jobs, which was often announced at that time, was considered by experts to be less than comforting. For example, according to the information provided by the IMISS, 40,000 jobs that were created in the Far East, practically did not change anything against the background of the official status of "unemployed" being assigned to 224,200 people. In comparison with the problems of 2008, the level of unemployment in Russia in 2015 has a completely different character. The growth of the indicator is due to an increase in hidden unemployment, which makes it impossible to soberly and rationally assess the processes taking place in the country's economy. Positive social moods can be maintained at the expense of low official figures, which, according to most analysts and industry experts, are far from reality. Today's situation negatively affects the welfare of the living standards of the population.

What is the difference between the situation in 2008 and 2014?

The unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 is growing not officially, as it was in 2008. This is due to a different nature of management decisions, with the introduction of new programs to combat unemployment and with the growth of a hidden indicator, which in fact can not be reflected in Rosstat's reports. The problem also lies in the temporary deferral between the management decisions taken and the period when they begin to produce the expected results. The complex of measures is based on professional retraining of personnel, which not only does not have an immediate effect, but also does not provide for short-term employment. The situation is aggravated by the fact that Ulyukaev, who holds the post of head of the Ministry of Economy, put forward a proposal to halt funding for programs to combat unemployment due to the fact that the official unemployment rate in the regions of Russia was much better than expected.

What will happen in 2015?

Against the backdrop of a catastrophic fall in the price of oil in early 2015 (January-February) and with a parallel weakening of the ruble, economists talked about the entry of the state economy into a recession. Answering the question about what level of unemployment in Russia will be in 2015, many stressed the inevitability of cutbacks due to the freeze of many planned and ongoing projects, as well as in the case of the final closure of many companies. The internal economic situation in the country did not help the expectation of general unemployment rates. If in 2009 it was possible to observe the value at the level of 8.3%, by the end of 2015 it is not necessary to wait for the indicator to exceed 6.4% on the background of 5.5% in 2014. In comparison with other countries in the world, the course of events is not catastrophic. So, Spain has been unable to cope with the figure of 25% for several years, Greece - with 25.8%, and France and Austria - with 10%.

Official government statements

The Ministry of Economic Development of the country relies on the fact that the unemployment rate in Russia, whose statistics is provided from official sources, will rise to 6.4%. The number of unemployed can reach about 434 thousand people. The situation will also affect the level of wages, which are planned to decrease by 9.6% by the end of 2015 (against 3.5% in 2008). This is due to a reduction in the financial capacity of budgets. Poverty is expected to increase from 11% in 2014 to 12.4% in 2015. According to the forecasts of Igor Nikolaev, who is the director of the department of strategic analysis of FBK, if by the end of 2015 the indicator will stop at a value of 6.4%, then in 2016-2017 it will be possible to observe its sharp increase. The forecast of representatives of the Center for Development of the Higher School of Economics says that the most affected sectors of the economy are trade and construction, services and tourism. It will not be easy for representatives of the financial sector. The risk of dismissal falls on the most low-skilled office workers. We emphasize that all forecasts remain only forecasts and assumptions, the situation can be considered in fact in a certain time interval and based on both official and unofficial data.