The bi-currency basket is under the control of the Central Bank

Recently in the media very often there are words that are not entirely understandable for a person without financial education and who are not well versed in the economy. This is the bi-currency basket.

This concept was introduced by the Central Bank in 2005. Let's try to figure out what a bi-currency basket is and where it can be used. Earlier, the policy of exchange rates for the main banking institution of the country was the US dollar, but from February 1, 2005 the euro appeared, and its share increased from 0.1 to 2007 to 0.45. The currency basket formed in this way allows the Central Bank to be flexible enough to approach the issue of fluctuating exchange rates and to adjust the fluctuations of the ruble exchange rate in a peculiar way.

The bi-currency basket is a benchmark for determining the present ruble exchange rate against the dollar and euro. At the present stage, it is formed from 55% of dollars 45% of euro.

For a long time in the country the exchange rate was kept at the level of 30 rubles, but in 2008 there was some expansion of the currency corridor and the rate began to fluctuate from 26 rubles. Up to 41 rubles. With a long-term retention basket at 30 rubles. There were considerable expenditures of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country. Because of what the Central Bank decided on a soft devaluation of the ruble, which led to an increase in the ruble's price in the bi-currency basket. This event allowed several to save the currency reserves of the country, however, there appeared a speculative need for foreign currency, both for the population and for banking institutions.

The formation of the bi-currency basket price is influenced by market factors and indicators, and is also directly dependent on the policy of the Central Bank. Strong influence on the ruble exchange rate against foreign currency (dollar and euro), and as a consequence, on the price of this type of basket, world prices for oil and raw materials are constantly exerted.

If we analyze the dynamics, the bi-currency basket with its price is subject to considerable fluctuations. So, for example, in August 2008, the minimum ruble rate was 29.27 rubles, and by February 2009 the world economic crisis was already beginning and the rate increased significantly and amounted to 40.93 rubles.

As for 2012, things are more positive here. So, on July 3 this year. Currency auctions ended with a decrease in the euro and the dollar against the ruble. The dollar saw a decrease in the rate of 45 kopecks (32.15 rubles.) Compared with the previous close, while the euro fell by 46 kopecks. (Was - 41 rubles., Became - 40.54 rubles.)

As a consequence, the dual-currency basket at a price fell to 35.9255 rubles. (By 40 kopecks in comparison with the previous period)

As already indicated, its price directly depends on the cost of oil. In this case, we see a decrease in this value and restore it to the level of $ 100 per barrel. As predicted by prominent economists, it is possible that the price of the bi-currency basket may drop to 35 rubles. At the current - 36.0 rubles.

Since during July 2012 the Central Bank's currency interventions had a systematic character, the volume of purchases daily averages up to $ 200 million. This may be insignificant, but still help to strengthen the ruble.

When setting the cost of oil at a level above $ 100 per barrel, the ruble can continue its strengthening. At the same time, the bi-currency basket will decline in price, but the Central Bank should not impede it, as foreign currency is sold in sufficient volumes (this may be seasonal and connected with holiday time).

However, the strengthening of the ruble can now turn into a strong fall for the country in the future. If the cost of oil continues to rise, then the movement to the upper boundary of the basket will increase, and for today this distance is small.

In the absence of promised disruptions in supplies from the Middle East of oil, the bi-currency basket will reach its price of 38.15 rubles, and possibly even higher.