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Gold and currency reserves of Ukraine: statistics and structure

The gold and currency reserves of each country include gold and currency. Other assets are also often included. In developed countries, the PWR structure may include the British pound and the Swiss franc, the yen and other major currencies of the world. The Central Bank's policy determines the composition of the reserve. At the same time, the more stable the economy of the state, the greater the percentage of gold in its gold reserves. If the exchange rate of the national currency is not very stable, then there will be a significant reserve of the strongest foreign currencies in the state reserve.

Structure of RWG by countries

The structure of the gold reserves varies dramatically, depending on the state. The latest official data for January 1, 2014 indicate the following specific weight of gold in assets:

  • America - 70%.
  • Germany - 66%.
  • France - 64.9%.
  • The EU countries - an average of 55.2%.
  • Russia - 7.8%.
  • Ukraine - 8%.

Here we note that in the past three years, a decline in the value of precious metal was recorded. That is why the fact of the relevance of gold as a dominant asset is being questioned by many. If the country is developing, it is more rational to fill the reserve with the main currencies of the world, as their rate grows very quickly. Developed issuing states that issue world currencies prefer precious metals when forming gold reserves. In addition to metal and currency, special reserves rights and quotas of the IMF state can be included in the gold reserves.

Reserve of Ukraine in 2014

The gold and currency reserves of Ukraine in 2014, according to published data, corresponded to the equivalent of 16.2 billion dollars. The reason for the increase in the budget was the stand-by program from the International Monetary Fund. The IMF allocated $ 978.42 million to the government. The account of the national bank of the country received 397.55 million dollars. The dynamics was due to the country's obligations to make payments to repay the debt in foreign currency. Over the course of the month, the National Bank actively manipulated money in the international foreign exchange market. He carried out both the sale of currency in the amount of 833.74 million, and its purchase for 98.30 million. This format of actions was aimed at smoothing the exchange rate of the national currency.

Reduction of gold reserves in 2015

Ukraine's gold and currency reserves, despite unexpected growth in the fall of 2014, declined by $ 7.5 billion in December. According to official data, by January 1, 2015, the volume of international reserves was 7.533 billion. For an estimation of a condition of a reserve it is possible to study a similar parameter of the last year.

So, in December 2014, the size of the gold reserves equivalent to the dollar was 9.965.95 billion. As a percentage of total assets, the state's assets declined by 24.41% in just one year. Reserves of foreign currencies decreased from 9 billion 959.95 million dollars to 6 billion 618.37 million. Ukraine's gold and currency reserves did not leak in borrowing rights, which amounted to 3.78 million dollars, and today they make up. There was a slight increase in dollar assets from 903.84 million in equivalent to 911.09 million. The reserve position of the state in the IMF remained at the index of 0.03 million dollars.

What does the government say?

According to the authorized bodies, this reduction is due to timely and full-scale repayment of government and NBU debt in foreign currency. UNIAN reported that the gold reserves decreased by 51.19% (10.450 billion dollars) by early 2015.

The results of November are not very comforting, as Ukraine's gold and currency reserves, statistics on which have always been within the norm, already in November easily updated their lows in the last 10 years. The last "weight loss" of assets of this level was recorded in December 2004 at around $ 9.715 billion. The National Bank justifies the situation by paying payments from Naftogaz of Ukraine for imported gas. Moreover, the state foreign exchange debt is systematically serviced and repaid, including to the IMF.

A significant contribution to the situation was made by hryvnia interventions on the interbank market. Ukraine's gold and currency reserves began to decline as early as in 2013. At that time, they sank 16.83% or $ 4.130 billion. Forecast Valeria Gontareva for a dramatic increase in gold reserves in 2015 suffered a complete failure.

The consequences of the reduction of RWR

Ukrainian gold and currency reserves, whose schedule has been falling over the past few years, negatively affects the economy of the state as a whole. Reducing the backbone of the domestic economy deprives confidence and forms a panic in the society.

The deviation from the reserve replenishment schedule occurred as a result of unplanned parliamentary elections. A clear adherence to the plan could radically change the actual situation. The state reserve of Ukraine in the volume in which it is today, according to authorized persons, is not a global problem. Optimism is inspired by the fact that the IMF itself actively supports a position in which the country's assets will amount to $ 23 billion. The state itself is considering an indicator of $ 15 billion.

What is happening today?

At the moment, Ukraine's gold and currency reserves have fallen dramatically, if we do not take into account the future tranche from the EU and the IMF. The exchange rate of the national currency is gradually decreasing, the public debt does not cease to grow. At the same time, one can confidently say that hyperinflation and default on government debts will not take place.

On the unpleasant situation in the country said stopping the publication of statistics from the analytical group Da Vinci AG. The company has been preparing a quarterly forecast for ZVR since 2010, but in the second half of 2014 completely abandoned its idea in connection with an exceptionally negative outlook. The situation, according to most experts, is related to the negative dynamics of the last 6 years in the sphere of industrial exports.

When did the downward trend begin?

The gold and currency reserves of Ukraine in 2014 are much lower than planned. According to experts, the trend towards asset reduction was laid back in 2011. It has an indirect link to military operations in the Donbas. The events unfolding in the east of the country acted as a catalyst for today's situation, which would still manifest itself by 2017-2018.

The gold reserve of Ukraine showed a dynamics similar to the positions of Ukrainian exports on the world market in the period from 2000 to 2014. Only in the field of metallurgy, overseas sales decreased from 2007 to 2013 by at least 25%. At the same time prices fell by about 30%. Consumers from Europe and Asia have significantly reduced orders. In parallel, MENA states began to actively build capacity.

Fall of the RW: probable causes

Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves actually collapsed, but not only in connection with the economic situation in the world, but also as a result of a reduction in production and sales on the international market. The reason for the phenomenon is directly related to the fixed exchange rate of the national currency, to the lack of reforms in the economy, to the continuation of policy rates on economic resources with a parallel decrease in their weight in the world economy. The identical situation develops in the chemical industry and in the field of machine building.

Reduction of reserves is a natural phenomenon. The aggravation of the crisis in 2014 simply coincided with the separation of the Crimea and the fighting in the east of the country. The negative situation in the whole country has left its imprint on Ukraine's gold and currency reserves. October 2014 was only a natural decline after the recovery of 2008-2009, when the economy of the state blossomed due to active external financial assistance.

What can change the situation?

The situation in Ukraine, including the sharp and systematic reduction of gold reserves, requires prompt reaction and intervention of the NBU. It is necessary to stabilize the situation in many commercial financial organizations, including by introducing temporary administrations. Separate situations require the recognition of official bankruptcy, without attempts to rectify the situation through financial expenses. The consolidation of the financial market is the most optimal scenario, which requires the withdrawal of small financial institutions without a large base of customers from the domestic market. It should be noted that the National Bank does not have strong levers of influence in the area of exchange rate formation. Actions at the level of the Cabinet of Ministers and the National Bank to attract foreign investment and to stimulate the development of exports are more than vital.

What can be judged by the indicator of gold reserves in Ukraine?

The reserve of gold reserves of Ukraine testifies to the financial strength of the state. To replenish and spend money from the reserve is entitled only to the NBU. The main purpose of the assets is the liquidation of the financial deficit for the balance of payments solely for the purpose of implementing interventions. Assets are needed to conduct investment activities within the foreign exchange market with the aim of influencing the national currency exchange rate. Gold and foreign currency reserves can be called a financial reserve of strength of national money, using which the state is able not only to strengthen the national currency, but also to stabilize it.

The fall in reserves clearly indicates that the NBU actively spends highly liquid are active in trying to support the hryvnia exchange rate on the international market. Decrease in inventories can be called an alarming trend, indicating the weakness of the currency. The reduction of the reserve indicates a high probability of the growth of the dollar and euro, as the state simply can not support the course of national money. This is fraught with a complete depletion of the gold reserve and the default of the economy. Despite positive forecasts, the actual increase in the gold reserves is not expected.

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