Rmb: Preventive Measures From Reserve Bank of Australia

According to the RMB , today the participants of the foreign exchange market focus their attention on decisions on the refinancing rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Canada. At 8:30 (Moscow time) it became known that the RBA cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, the lowest level since 2009, which fully coincided with the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Bloomberg. In the comments to the decision, concern is noted over the growing fiscal problems of the eurozone and the slowdown in the economy of China, Australia's main trading partner. According to the RMB , the easing of pressure from inflation also played a minor role: according to the RBA, CPI this year will grow by 2.5% compared to the previous forecast of 3%. According to the representatives of the Bank, Europe will remain a "source of negative shocks", which is likely to continue to exert pressure on the mood of market participants.

RMB analysts believe that the initial reaction to the news from the RBA can be characterized as atypical. As a rule, with lower interest rates, the national currency begins to weaken against competitors, since, in a particular case with the Australian, it becomes less attractive for carry trade transactions. However, this time the rate of the Australian not only did not decrease, but even grew within 30 points against the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Such dynamics can be attributed to some easing of pressure on risky assets during the yesterday's session ahead of the forthcoming talks between the G7 finance ministers, which will focus on the crisis situation in Spain, as well as the meetings of the European Central Bank. A number of market participants expect that officials can take some measures to ease tensions in the euro area. Some analysts even speculate on the next stage of injecting liquidity into the European financial system through long-term refinancing operations (LTRO).

Summarizing the situation with the Australian, RMB also notes the presence of technical factors that promote growth. First, last week the pair AUD / USD reached the levels of November 2011, which are significant support. Secondly, on the lower charts, the indicators indicated a divergence and oversold availability. In such circumstances, the exit from the downstream channel can push AUD / USD quotes higher, to the area of 0.9880.

The Bank of Canada is not expected to change interest rates today. However, this does not cancel the increased speculative interest that traditionally accompanies the comments of regulator representatives.