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Political Forecasting

Political analysis and forecasting (foresight) are researches of a scientific nature applied to processes and phenomena in politics. Through learning, specific perspectives are determined in the development of events in this area. For the most accurate assessment of the chances of success and likely behavioral strategies, the political forecasting used must be based on analytical aspects of the methodology.

The main task of foresight is the ability to assume the course of development of an event with a high level of probability. It should be noted that in all types of activities, inconsistency of results with original intentions can be observed. However, according to experts, it is in politics that this phenomenon (inconsistencies) is equated with the law. It is in this sphere that there is a frequent and very distant discrepancy between the planned goals and the result of their implementation.

Politics is characterized by the emergence of a multitude of processes that are characterized by instability and instability. Even minor or accidental events (death of a politician, leakage of information, etc.) can provoke a profound political shock. This is one of the reasons that often the supposed and planned does not become the basis of confident anticipation, but, on the contrary, often pours out into unexpected processes. At the same time, scientific foresight includes determinism (restriction) as an inevitable result of rational models of development. Political prediction, in turn, reduces it (determinism) to a property that is only occasionally manifested.

Peculiarities of foresight (in politics) contribute to the constant expansion of the methodological base of research. At the same time, analysts begin to take into account a variety of non-traditional approaches, collective and individual experience of behavior, intuition. There are historical analogies, and momentary expectations. Thus, political forecasting goes into the methodology of a particular impact on reality. The impact on the political reality is carried out to create the desired changes in it. There are several variants of foresight.

Basic methods of political forecasting

The most common form of foresight is extrapolation. Political forecasting in this case is a continuation in the future of this or that process on a thought level. The use of this variant of foresight is based on the presence of the trajectory of motion and temporal extent in most phenomena. Thus, a chain is constructed from the events of the present and the past. The application of this method makes it possible to study not so much the events themselves, but rather the potential trajectory of their development.

Often in the case of political forecasting, the analogy method is used. In this case, analysts rely on the similarity of conditions that triggered the development of certain events in the past. Thus, the conclusion is the likelihood of a recurrence of the same process in the future under similar conditions. However, the application of this method is hampered by insufficient consideration of the subjective factor - the change of political subjects in qualitative terms. In this regard, there may be a situation where similar conditions have discovered themselves, and the alleged events have not occurred.

The method of scenarios used in the political foresight is a description of the events of the future in the world in general or in a particular region. At the same time, analysts take into account various factors, including the researcher's own attitude to the event being studied.

There is also a method of peer review in political forecasting . In this case, the basis for the hypotheses is the result of the work of a group of specialists whose experience and knowledge in the field of foresight are generally recognized.

It is very useful when forecasting in politics the method of modeling. In this case, knowledge about the future process is formed by the created conditional image of the alleged object. Its (the image of the object) can be embodied in a map, diagram, graph, formula and so on. Thus, the simulation of the predicted phenomenon is carried out.

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